Mocha Express
Commentaries
Thought provoking commentary on
Business, Technology, Organizations, and Organizational Dynamics
to clarify my thinking and engage in intelligent conversation.
Library: Commentary  Book: Elucidate

Other Entries by Chapter
Book: Knowledge Horizons"  »

3.2 Degrees of Risk and Predicting the Future

April 24, 2013

I happened to respond to a comment, addressed to me, on Judith Curry's Climate, Etc site:
Do scientific assessments need to be consensual to be authoritative?

It was a reply to the ephemeral
     "A fan of *MORE* discourse" April 23, 2013 at 11:28 pm as
to "what would a CEO do" about Hansen's prediction of disaster and only a 25m guard band on sea level rise risk to a physical facility that was  ~120m above the level 20K years ago

My CEO answer is:
     not relevant
and
     the person bringing it up as a sole issue item is
distracting enough to be fired or transferred off into the toolies.
I note that I view your
     "responsibility-dodging no-metric wafflers, your no-consequence
      waffles are not solicited!"
is classic "Belly-Bucking" device: define a tiny sandbox to play "king of the sand pile".

CEO must step
       out of the box
and this event is so far beyond the planning horizon and the
     degree of uncertainty in it and other things is so high
as to  make it a non-issue
      other than to monitor the science to see if there is a strategic change.
Problematically, the science is dodgy since it can't explain
      El Nino, La Nina, AMO, clouds, Minoan & Roman warm periods, etc

Your link to "Sustainable Humanity, Sustainable Nature" conference seems to represent such myopic, tactical thinking by non-visionary folk, as to be pathetic.
"Not fouling the nest" is critical, but that conference looks to be a joke by the skill-less folk who want to be highly paid to micromanage others folk.

As the Pharaohs', the Anasazis', the Romans', the Minoans', Greeks', China dynasties' etc  descendants learned,
     the world changes in unpredictable ways
a.k.a. chaos theory: It is all very non-linear and those who claim to predict the future better be able to generate and robustly test physical theory to handle the past.

Right now, the CEO strategic risks have more to do with
       robotics, nano tech, gene modification, (and escape thereof)
       abandoning the ability to exit to other locales in space,
       the decline in education in the 1st world countries and lack in 3rd, and
      especially, the unstable sociopolitical landscape with nuclear proliferation.
Solving those problems has more strategic urgency than a minor sea level rise in 100 years.


Recent Commentaries
in Elucidate Book

Commentary: Elucidate - December 29, 2016
9  Ice Age Survival
Commentary: Elucidate - September 22, 2016
8  Ice Core TimeLine Munge
Commentary: Elucidate - June 23, 2016
7   Why did Agriculture Start 13,000 years ago
Commentary: Elucidate - June 15, 2016
6  BBC Propaganda, again
Commentary: Elucidate - June 10, 2016
5  BBC - Propaganda
Commentary: Elucidate - March 23, 2016
4  Finches: Urban Ones Smart??
Commentary: Elucidate - January 25, 2014
3.3  Qualifying Experts
Commentary: Elucidate - April 24, 2013
3.2  Degrees of Risk
Commentary: Elucidate - April 06, 2013
3.1  Analysis of Medical Insurance Discussion
Commentary: Elucidate - February 17, 2013
2.2  Rewarding Accomplishing Goals
Commentary: Elucidate - February 03, 2013
2.4  Computer ate my Sbx Reward
Commentary: Elucidate - November 16, 2012
2.1  Stifle Free Speech
Commentary: Elucidate - February 20, 2012
1.1  Mayberry Rules
Commentary: Elucidate - June 28, 2011
2.7  Everything Old is New Again
Commentary: Elucidate - August 02, 2009
2.3  Banana Slugs: The Law of Unintended Consequences: Protect and Lose

Elucidate
       Chapters

1   Clever, but not very Smart
  January 01, 1997
1.1   Mayberry Rules
    February 20, 2012
2   Random Elucidatons
  January 01, 1997
2.1   Stifle Free Speech
    November 16, 2012
2.2   Rewarding Accomplishing Goals
    February 17, 2013
2.3   Banana Slugs: The Law of Unintended Consequences: Protect and Lose
    August 02, 2009
2.4   Computer ate my Sbx Reward
    February 03, 2013
2.5   The End Of Innovation or How To Lie With Statistics?
    July 02, 2005
2.6   Lying With Statistics: CNN Article that Organic Food is Not "more nutritious'
    August 22, 2008
2.7   Everything Old is New Again
    June 28, 2011
2.8   Topical: just like Sub-Prime => Commodity Greed
    April 19, 2008
2.9   Tools: Spreading Knowledge That Can Hurt:
    April 14, 2008
2.10   Tools: Trying to Help While Still Selling Corn
    February 27, 2008
2.11   The Game is Rigged: Attacking with Speculative Analysis
    January 06, 2008
2.12   Getting your "Eyes On" to see ATV Damage
    November 26, 2007
2.13   US Forest Service - "Leave No Trace... or you will do Trail Maintenance with a Trowel!"
    October 13, 2007
2.14   Act Locally, Destroy Globally: Cultivate Disease Resistance
    March 04, 2007
2.15   Joisting with Self-Glorifying Windmills
    March 03, 2007
3   Analysis
  January 01, 1997
3.1   Analysis of Medical Insurance Discussion
    April 06, 2013
3.2   Degrees of Risk
    April 24, 2013
3.3   Qualifying Experts
    January 25, 2014
4   Finches: Urban Ones Smart??
  March 23, 2016
5   BBC - Propaganda
  June 10, 2016
6   BBC Propaganda, again
  June 15, 2016
7    Why did Agriculture Start 13,000 years ago
  June 23, 2016
8   Ice Core TimeLine Munge
  September 22, 2016
9   Ice Age Survival
  December 29, 2016
Carpe Diem: What you can envision, you can achieve!sm
If you like this or found something useful/educational, be sure to pay the piper.
home        contact
copyright 1998-2017